SmartTranscript of House Energy and Digital Infrastructure- 2025-01-16- 1:00pm

[Graham Kleppner ]: Okay. Madam chair, we are live. [Kathleen James ]: Alright. Welcome, everybody, to the Thursday, January sixteenth afternoon meeting of the House Energy and Digital Infrastructure Committee. We are joined today by Jared Duvall, executive director of the Energy Action Network. And we will just quickly go around the table and introduce ourselves, and then we will turn it over to you and let you identify yourself through the record. So, I'm representative Kathleen James of Bennington four District. [Jared Duvall ]: Scott Campbell of I'm going to ask you. From Saint John's party. [Mark Morrow ]: Richard Bailey, Lobato two. Chris Morrow, Wyndham Windsor, Bennington. Michael, Southwood, Caledonia two. [Kathleen James ]: Christopher, Howland, Rowland four. Gary, Washington two. [Graham Kleppner ]: Graham Kleppner, Chittenden thirteen, Burlington. [Chris Morrow ]: I'm so sorry, madam chair. [Kathleen James ]: Introduce yourself. Identify your boss, Abuela. You too. Great. Alright. Over to you if you can identify yourself for the record. [Jared Duvall ]: Well, good afternoon. For the record, my name is Jared Duvall. Really glad to be with you. Thank you for the invitation, chair James, and members of the committee. I wanna clarify upfront, I'm joining you today and was invited in my in the capacity as executive director of the Energy Action Network. So I'll I'll talk a little bit more about what EAN is in in the slides I'll share shortly, but we're an independent nonprofit organization here in based in Montpelier in the state wide, data tracking research and analysis related to energy emissions, the economy, etcetera. And so I'm really glad to share with you today some of the, summaries of that work include including from this annual progress report for Vermont that we produce each year. I do wanna clarify upfront. Some of you may know me in an in an additional and different role, which is as an appointed member of the Vermont Climate Council, where I chair the science and data subcommittee, serve on the cross sector mitigation subcommittee, and the steering committee of the council. And the reason upfront that I wanna make the distinction is is really important because Energy Action Network as a nonprofit organization does not take positions on bills before the legislature on administrative proceedings. So, you know, we don't do any lobbying. We we are there to serve as a independent tracker and analyst and as a neutral convener of really diverse perspectives. We have members of our network who are on all different sides of public issues, and our job is to bring them together in a in a trusted way, for conversations. That said, by being appointed to the Vermont Climate Council, I was given a legal responsibility and requirement to make policy recommendations to the legislature around what could meet the Global Oremacy Solutions Act commitments that the state has made. So in my council role, I often do have to talk about policy and policy recommendations, I would be happy to, you know, do that in a at a future time in my council capacity. But my understanding is today, I'm here. Just the facts, please. Let's, you know not, as a counselor, just in my EA and also just wanted to share that upfront. If it's okay, I'm gonna go ahead and share screen for these slides. [Scott Campbell ]: It was visible. Great. [Jared Duvall ]: Great. [Chris Morrow ]: So excited that you have all those windows open, Jared. [Jared Duvall ]: I'm sorry. It's embarrassing. I should have closed those before. Alright. What I need to do [Speaker 6 ]: is move this [Jared Duvall ]: Wow. And go oh, I can just [Scott Campbell ]: click. Okay. Okay. So, [Jared Duvall ]: first to introduce Energy Action Network, and I do have a physical copy of which I'm happy to share at any point. Maybe I'll leave it to the end so we're we can focus on the slides first, but I do wanna share these physical copies of Goodwill Porter, after. Energy Action Network is really two things. It is a network of any organization, college, university, business, utility, any entity in the state of Vermont that wants to work together towards meeting the state's climate and energy commitments. And we host convenings for them. We have an annual summit. For instance, there's all EA and also refers to a small nonprofit organization. We're based here in Montpelier. We have a staff of three, and our primary role as a nonprofit is energy and emissions data tracking, research, and analysis. And then we also serve as a kind of trusted neutral convener for diverse network of members. In addition to our report, we're putting out research papers, research briefs all the time. Once there is there is new data, information available to help inform and ground the state's energy and climate conversation. So that's a little bit about EAN. And so chair James had asked me to set some context about where does Vermont's energy come from. And then once we use it, where does it end up? I think both in terms of emissions was how you you phrase it. Also, I wanna look at where does our energy come from and where does it end up in terms of the dollars we spend on it and the questions of energy costs and savings and what that means for the larger affordability conversation. So this is a graph from our latest annual product report that looks the these columns at the top show that we can look at how much energy is used, how much greenhouse gas emissions are produced, and how much we spend on energy by sector. And so when we look at that and I'm gonna go through those kind of in that order. How where where does our energy use come from? How much is it? And and then look at the energy expenditures and emissions. But we see that across the board, whatever our lens of analysis is, most of our energy use, most of our greenhouse gas emissions, and most of our spending as a state goes from the energy that we use to get around for transportation and to heat our homes and buildings in the thermal sector. The electricity sector is also very important, especially when it comes to opportunities to save money and to reduce emissions by electrifying those those, transportation thermal sectors that are right now incredibly fossil fuel dependent. But in terms of our current energy use emissions and expenditures, the electricity sector is less of the story than is our transportation and thermal sector. There's some interesting things that you can see in looking at these. These are scaled based on the percentages. So we actually use more energy in the thermal sector. That's another name for the residential, commercial, and industrial fuel use, sector. We actually use more energy for thermal activities. Most of it's heating, a little cooling, than we do for transportation. But more of our statewide emissions come from transportation than they do, from the thermal sector. And that's primarily because our transportation sector is, of all of our energy sectors, is currently the most fossil fuel dependent. We have a lot more wood energy use for home and building heating in the federal sector, which lowers in terms of the way that the greenhouse gas inventory that agency of natural resources is produced. The way that emissions are measured, it leads to lower emissions in the thermal sector even though there's higher energies and higher emissions in the transportation sector. [Kathleen James ]: I have a question. I have a couple questions. So I I sometimes need to take things back to, like, really basic. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. [Kathleen James ]: So so the transportation sector, obviously, that's all of our cars and buses and things that we're driving around, mostly fueled by gas, Elaine. Where do e v do EVs fall under the electricity sector? [Jared Duvall ]: So when we're counting energy use [Kathleen James ]: Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: We count EVs in transportation. [Kathleen James ]: Okay. [Jared Duvall ]: But the emissions from that electricity in the green official greenhouse gas inventory would be in the electricity sector. [Kathleen James ]: Okay. So we've got how we get around, how we heat our homes, and all the things we plug in. Yep. Okay. Thank you. Yep. That's it. [Jared Duvall ]: And so to dig a little deeper, this is another way of looking at our energy use. So these these top pie charts are scaled by the amount of energy that the city uses. So largest largest is the thermal sector. You can see that nearly three quarters of that energy use is fossil fuel, about twenty six percent fuel oil or kerosene, twenty percent fossil gas, also sometimes called utility gas or natural gas, twenty percent propane. And then the biggest chunk of it is not fossil fuels comes from wood heating, primarily poured wood chips and wood pellets. There's a small amount that's electricity. That's a combination of some old more inefficient electric resistance like electric baseboard or space space resistance space heaters. But also the increasing number of cold climate heat pumps for space heating and heat pump water heaters. And then also a small amount of liquid biofuels that would be like biodiesel, blended with fuel oil or renewable natural gas blended in with the gas deliveries in in the gas system? [Kathleen James ]: Oh, I'm sorry, representative. [Speaker 7 ]: So the renewable natural gas, when you're saying is mixed, we mentioned a couple of those mixed in the biofuels, does that only represent that portion that is not natural gas and the or the base fuel to make the mix and the other portion of that, say it's a percent plusity at ninety ten split. Yeah. So that would represent ten percent and the other ninety percent would be up in the brown fossil fuel. [Jared Duvall ]: That's right. So this this percentage is the percentage of the total, not the percent of RNG in the system. So yes. [Speaker 7 ]: I don't know if I heard the answer the same as I asked it. So in the ninety five so this represents the ten percent of the renewable that's mixed with ninety percent fossil, and each go into its respective spot. [Jared Duvall ]: So renewable natural gas is a is a little bit different because that's in the gas pipeline system. And so tell me if I'm hearing you wrong. But what I think I'm I heard is that RNG is a larger proportion of the the gas system than point five percent. It I don't know exactly what it is off the top. [Graham Kleppner ]: I gotta have to look. [Jared Duvall ]: You know, if I may, Matt and Jen. [Kathleen James ]: Sorry. I [Jared Duvall ]: just had your question. [Graham Kleppner ]: So I think what my colleague is asking is that point five percent RNG, is that is that a hundred percent RNG or is that the mix of RNG with natural gas? [Jared Duvall ]: Oh, that's one hundred percent RNG, but it does get mixed with Yes. Right. The the fossil gas here. Sorry. Alright. Okay. Yep. [Kathleen James ]: Representative Morrow, sorry. [Mark Morrow ]: This twenty twenty three data. This is [Jared Duvall ]: this is twenty twenty two. [Mark Morrow ]: Oh, I see. I didn't even see it. [Jared Duvall ]: We're always trying to get to the recent data. Sometimes there are delays. Right. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Alright. In the so if we move to the right, the transportation sector, as you said, chair James, most of that energy is gasoline. Two thirds is is gasoline. That quarter is diesel. You know, more diesel is used in medium and heavy duty vehicles. Gasoline is primarily used in the light duty fleet. And the small amount of of what is renewable in there and renewable doesn't necessarily mean low emitting, but renewable is ethanol that's blended gasoline, biodiesel that's blended with diesel, and a very small amount point two percent right now that is, electricity used for electric vehicles. So just to put this in context, I've got numbers later, but I don't have the exact number for you. This is a rough estimate. Vermont's total vehicle fleet about five hundred and fifty thousand vehicles, just under the the total population of the state. As of July last year, we had fifteen thousand electric vehicles. The fifteen thousand out of five hundred and fifty thousand plus, you know, and and electric vehicles are, you know, four times as efficient as gas vehicles at transferring energy into movement. And so it's a very small amount of electricity that's that gets used for that right now. [Graham Kleppner ]: Three percent of the fleet, but point two percent of the energy use, roughly. [Jared Duvall ]: As of twenty twenty two. And and also that percent of the fleet is there's a bit of a disconnect there because I just gave you a a twenty twenty four number. This is twenty twenty two energy use. I think it's likely that that small electricity wedge has gone up in the past couple of years a little bit. And then the last one is the electricity sector. This is showing our electricity use broken down by source post rec accounting, post renewable energy certificate or renewable energy credit accounting in line with Vermont law and the ISO New England system. And so I do have another graph that can show how it breaks down based on initial purchases before renewable energy certificates are bought and sold. But this is the the way that's legally consistent. And it shows that right now, our electricity is seventy five percent renewable, sixteen percent nuclear, and less than ten percent, nine percent fossil fuel based. And that share is the electricity that we purchased from the residual system mixed for ISO New England. And so it is by far our lowest energy use sector, and it's our our most renewable at at this point. Any questions? Is that a hopeful I'd like to scale pie charts to be able to see total energy use and then how it breaks down in those wedges in terms of the source. [Kathleen James ]: Yep. [Scott Campbell ]: May I may I check? [Kathleen James ]: Yep. Oh, yeah. I'm sorry. Sorry. I'm very absorbed with the pie charts. Yes. [Scott Campbell ]: Representative Campbell. Who's your gonna ask ask you, Jared, if you're going to explain the renewable energy credits versus versus actual energy generation and all that at or the actual energy usage. It's a [Jared Duvall ]: yes. Happy to at least [Kathleen James ]: Touch on it. [Jared Duvall ]: Touch on it. Yeah. That I it can be a very long conversation. So this is a a a picture of your favorite breakfast steer with a hole in the middle. Doughnut chart, Bagel chart, that that shows our electricity portfolio post rec accounting. And we can see that more than half is electricity from Hydro Quebec. Other regional hydro shown here. This darker green, the bolder green color, the solar and hydro, that ten percent combined of the three plus the seven, that those are in state resources. The the more muted colors are all out of state resources. It's interesting if you compare. This is prerec accounting, and you see that there's much more renewable energy produced in state than we actually end up accounting for at the end of the kind of the rec accounting process because those are high value recs to other states. So they get sold to those other states. So a lot of the in state generation doesn't get counted in Vermont because other states are paying for it. So this is pre rec accounting. That's postrec accounting. So you go from about what is it? Twenty seven, thirty three, maybe thirty four percent of our energy being produced or electricity being produced in state that we're counting in our electricity portfolio to I'm sorry. To this lower amount, post strike accounting. But either way, I think one of the important things to point out is that this share that's fossil, which is where most of the pollution the climate pollution comes from, is nine percent post direct accounting, and it's seven percent for either way. We're less than ten percent fossil fuel dependent. And and really the appropriate way to look at it is in terms of the way the law is written and the way electricity markets work, which is post rec accounting. But, so that's that's the the breakdown. I should say that, over time, this is this is gonna shift because of, in large part, the the law that was later passed last year that updates the renewable energy standard puts us on a path to, requiring a one hundred percent renewable electricity portfolio by twenty thirty five. So over time, we're gonna see these shrink and these grow. [Kathleen James ]: So this shows where we where we get or or where how we're generating our energy this other day. Right? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. I I would it's it's complicated in terms of the phrasing. I I think the most accurate way to say it is this is our represents a purchased electricity portfolio or purchased electricity resources that we have legal claim to based on rec sales, which is a little bit different than generation because there's electricity generation that happens in the state, but it's then being connected to the ISO New England system. So who's taking credit or accounting for that electricity could be another state that we sell electricity to. [Kathleen James ]: What's Southwest and the power [Speaker 6 ]: So based on that chart, Vermont is already over seventy percent clean energy purchase. [Jared Duvall ]: Am I reading that correctly? Yes. K. Thank you. [Speaker 7 ]: So the renewable energy credit could be sold to out of state where the energy itself is used in state. It's sort of like you are charging the battery to give the ability to support the grid Yeah. If you will. So you you have put electricity into the grid to support the Yeah. Frequencies and and the like, but the energy actually gets used closest to it gets manufactured and used as close generation to consumption, but the credit for that goes to out of state. So the difference between your pre prereq and your postreq [Jared Duvall ]: I think that I think there's an important distinction in what you're what you said, which is that, yes, there is more energy renewable energy generated in Vermont than is shown here. But I don't think it would make sense for to for us to say that it's that's used in Vermont. Because once the electricity is generated, it goes into our grid and electricity is moving at near the speed of light. Right? I have to brush up on my physics. But it's moving so fast that being able to account for where it's actually used is really difficult. It could be Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut. And so that's the I think that's a big part of why Rex were created because it's not like a a barrel of oil where you know where it's going and being used. Once those electrons and ions are on the system, they're everywhere on the system. And so in order to account for the use, that's one of the reasons that the that the rec system was created. But I but I agree with what you're saying in the in terms of generation. I just wouldn't extend that to, therefore, electricity use, if that's helpful. Sorry. It's complicated. The electricity system in particular It is. [Kathleen James ]: And we're we haven't yet, you know, taken testimony on even ISO and England under the grid. So representative software? [Speaker 6 ]: So does any of your research have any bearing on what percentage of power generated on off grid solar, off grid wind for people where it's not put back into the grid? It is just for their own generation purposes. [Jared Duvall ]: That is a great question. I would have to go back and look at these numbers to see if that is accounted for in here. I don't immediately recall that it that it is because I think that what this is really my recollection is that this is data looking at our electricity our electric utilities purchase portfolios. And so if it's off grid, it wouldn't be showing up in those numbers. K. [Speaker 6 ]: I would yeah. I would like to see that because I think that might have a bearing on quite a few different things. I mean, if you have ten people that are not showing in your Yeah. Graphs as purchasing, they're doing their own, that should have some bearing in that somewhere. [Speaker 8 ]: Just a question on why nuclear is not considered green being it has the lowest carbon footprint. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. So the color scheme here, green is really meant to track with renewable. So agreed that in most accounting systems, nuclear is either kind of at zero or low carbon, which is why, you know, we don't have it in the orange, which represents fossil. It's kind of in its own own category. It is lower emitting, but it is not renewal it's not a renewable electricity resource. So but I but I totally hear the feedback that the color scheme of green versus what when we say green, what does it mean that there can be a a difference there? Thank you. Good to proceed. Okay. So I also want to look at where the dollar flows go. And I wanna focus on not the percentages at first, but the amount of dollars. So this is data from latest data we could get from twenty twenty three. And if you combine all of our fossil fuel spending in well, at least in the transportation and thermal sector, so all the gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, propane, fossil gas, kerosene, etcetera, you'll see that those amounts here and here, they add up to over two point two billion dollars. So Vermonters collectively spent over two point two billion dollars on fossil fuel energy in twenty twenty two, and we spent collectively a little less than a billion dollars on electricity. That's, you know, one part of what these infographic show. The other part is how much of that money stays in state or leaves the state. So fossil fuels are one hundred percent important to Vermont. We don't produce or refine any here. So and most of the cost of that fuel is the wholesale commodity price that's charged by the company that exports it to Vermont. And so most of that money is going back to that out of state company to to pay for the the out of state fuel. Now some of that money does recirculate. It will go to local fuel dealers, their truck drivers, things like things like that. The story is different when it comes to the electricity sector. We're actually I I wish I had found a way to update this slide so it stays with it in terms of the submitted resources. But at least on in this testimony and on the video stream, I wanna make this correction. We actually just met with the public service department to take account of transmission costs, and that changes this number a little bit. So we think it's now more like sixty percent of the money that we spend on electricity as a state stays and recirculates in the state. So you think about what that when you pay an electric bill, what's that money going towards? A a very large share of it, much larger share that is related to the fossil, is going to to labor. That's line maintenance. It's tree trimming. It's customer service operations. It's going to the distribution system. All of those things are in state. The transmission system, a little bit of it's in state, but most of it's the ISO New England system. So we're correcting this to it to account for that, and it's probably more like, you know, sixty forty. But it's still a big difference in terms of how much our energy dollars stay and recirculate local and contribute to the Vermont economy versus how much they're going to out of state companies. This is another really important thing in the comparison of the different energy sectors and energy sources. It's the difference in efficiency. So in a gas vehicle, I would start with the right hand one. Less than a quarter of s and this is from the fuel economy dot gov from the federal government. Less than a quarter of the energy that's put in gasoline ends up actually moving the vehicle. More than three quarters of the energy that's used as gasoline gets lost in the form of heat and other engine losses. In contrast with an electric vehicle, which has, you know, electric motors are much more efficient than internal combustion engines, you end up seeing eighty seven to ninety one percent of the electricity that's put in the vehicle actually moving the vehicle. And so what that means is the amount of energy that goes into moving a gas car a hundred miles, that same amount of energy represented as electricity moves an electric vehicle three hundred and fifty to five hundred and fifty miles, for instance. We also see this difference in the and so when we talk about, is it possible to reduce energy use, reduce emissions, and reduce costs? This key difference in the efficiency of the energy technologies combustion versus modern electric technology is really at the root of this conversation. So so I wanna just kind of establish it upfront. We see the same thing on the the thermal side. In terms of how efficient a combustion system can be at generating heat, it's maxed out by the laws of thermodynamics. You can't get above a hundred percent fish efficiency because you're burning something to generate heat. See vice chair Kimball nodding. He knows this very well from his previous career. But heat pump technology, whether it's in a heat pump water heater, cold climate heat pump air source drops, whatever, that is using that is used to transfer heat from one source to another rather than to generate it. And so you can get these efficiency rates that are three or four times higher, allowing you to use far less energy to accomplish the same task or the same result, whether it's moving somewhere or whether it's heating space or water. Yes. Representative Torrey. Thank you. [Speaker 7 ]: I'm thinking. [Jared Duvall ]: That's right. Oh, sorry. [Kathleen James ]: I Sorry. No. I I'm getting very absorbed. You said yes. Representative Torrey. So as we electrify in Vermont, assuming we don't end up with data centers, where our overall energy usage is going down? [Jared Duvall ]: Yes. If you're if you're adding electricity use with fossil use, the electricity use is going up. But the total energy use is going down because we're getting the benefits of of that more efficient use of of energy. Yes. And so if that's such a great and important point. So if we go back here, what we would see over time is that the the size of these pies would be would be shrinking even as the electricity wedge here and here is growing. The size of the pie would be going down because we're using less energy because we're using energy more efficiently. And it it is not oftentimes, we talk about energy efficiency as though we mean, like, more efficient light bulbs or weatherizing a building. But there's also these really important efficiency differences and benefits of modern electric technology versus combustion technology. [Graham Kleppner ]: And I would also add that the investments being made now in electric technology are higher than in improving efficiency in automobiles and so forth, just because of the way the global market's going and and the heat pump technology. This is data from what year? This slide. I mean, I believe this is [Jared Duvall ]: twenty twenty three. I would have to go [Graham Kleppner ]: back and be sure. So twenty twenty three. So I put in heat pumps in early twenty twenty, and they were, like, two hundred and ten percent efficient. By twenty twenty three, they were too full. Now they're, like, three hundred or something. So they're becoming efficient at a really rapid rate. And there's a theoretical limit that's, like, two thousand percent or something crazy. So there's room for them to get better over time, whereas the emissions from fossil fuels are kind of staying the same over time. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. And these I should note that these efficiencies, are average efficiencies. And how efficient either a gas vehicle or an electric vehicle or a heat pump is will depend on if if it's on the outdoor temperature. And as temperatures go down, electric vehicles become less efficient and air source heat pumps become less efficient, but this is an average efficiency that accounts for that. So there's times when it's more efficient than what you're what you're seeing on this average here. I also wanted, look at so we're talking about where does the energy come from? And then what is the nature of it in terms of the economics of it that Vermonters face and that we see in the Vermont economy. So this tracks gasoline, diesel, and electricity prices since two thousand five. And what we see is that gasoline and diesel are generally higher cost and much more price following. You get this kind of, like, roller coaster like, like, curve in terms of their costs. You know, just to, like, put in perspective this volatility and the average price of gasoline this week in Vermont is about three dollars and nine cents a gallon. In June of twenty twenty two, it was over five dollars a gallon. So we can see these really big swings that you see in these peaks and valleys. But it has has consistently been higher than the equivalent cost from a fuel perspective of of charging an EV. So this green line here is the statewide average cost of charging an EV in in Vermont. But there are lower cost charging options available if your utility offers an EV rate. So bring on power says if you sign up for our EV rate, it'll cost you the equivalent of a dollar twenty a gallon. So there is an opportunity to move away from higher cost, more price, volatile cost curves to lower cost, more price stable energy cost in the transportation sector. Of course, this is just the fuel cost. There's also the equipment costs. And one of the biggest challenges, one of the biggest tensions tension points in the energy transition, right, is that for a lot of the people who are able to make the transition to this much more efficient and lower cost technology, there's an upfront investment cost. And so, yes, over the lifetime, a lot of the modeling, a lot of the analysis shows you will save money. But how do you get over that initial hurdle and what and there's a question of what is the role of public policy in terms of helping people who cannot get over that hurdle access these technologies that can cut costs and cut, pollution at the same time. This is the same data on, the heating side comparing different heating fuel options. You'll see the same general shape in the purple is fuel oil. Pink is kerosene. Gray is propane. You know, a lot of price volatility. The lower cost, more price stable options. It's it's it's not uniform on the fossil fuel side. There's a lot of high cost to price volatility for pure fuel oil, propane, kerosene. Fossil gas, utility gas, natural gas, whatever you wanna call it, is, you know, more stable and lower cost in in comparison. And then, you know, wood wood heating through wood pellets or wood chips, also lower cost and more price stable from a fuel perspective. I wanna point out the really important difference between electric heat pumps, that line, and electric resistance. You see that they have the same price, you know, twenty two cents a kilowatt hour. But this y axis is showing on a common energy unit the amount of delivered heat per dollar. And because electric heat pumps are so much more efficient, you know, like three times more efficient than electric resistance, That's why their costs are about three times lower. It goes back to that trans what is the energy actually accomplished and how efficient is it in doing that? So there is an important distinction when we talk about the costing opportunities of electricity. It's not, you know, older inefficient electric resistance heating systems. We're talking about the modern, more energy efficient cold climate heat pumps and heat pump water heaters. [Kathleen James ]: Yeah. [Speaker 8 ]: Can we back up on the slide? The electric line that green electricity Mhmm. Because those rates are regulated, isn't that sort of artificial peaks and the that if it was actually out on the free market, it would be a lot could be a lot peaks and valleys on it? [Jared Duvall ]: Potentially, I I think that it's a combination of the the regulated rates that, you know, utilities proposed, public utility commission proofs. But it's all I think it also reflects the the cost of the power purchases and what they're finding on the market and what contracts they're purchasing. And I think because Vermont is a state that has many long term contracts, we see that greater price stability than than you would see in the electricity price line in other states. [Kathleen James ]: What's civilian? [Chris Morrow ]: Yeah. I recognize the question was for the witness, but having had a little experience in this policy area Yes. And if that this is why we have seen tremendous volatility in our neighbors who don't have a regulated structure for electric in terms of their prices. And Vermont's either the lowest or second lowest in England because of that regulatory screen, but I think you've put your finger right down. It's because of that regulation, you don't see the volatility. [Graham Kleppner ]: And I was also gonna mention the the long term contracts, which we don't get for gasoline, but we do get, like how long is our contract with Hydro Quebec right now? [Kathleen James ]: Oh, gosh. [Graham Kleppner ]: And, yeah, it's a bunch of years to stay right now. [Speaker 8 ]: I I understand. Yeah. Yeah. [Kathleen James ]: And I have a question back to the Rex conversation. The sale of those Rex, the money goes to utilities. Right? And so that that helps them reduce the rates. So as we become more renewable in the state, we as consumers of electricity benefit from from that price stabilization. Is that true? [Jared Duvall ]: That's my understanding. I mean, I do think that utility witnesses or witnesses from the bulk service department will be able to speak with more specificity than than I would. But my understanding is that, yes, when electric utilities sell in state generate the the the renewable attributes of that, that that revenue comes back to them and allows them to lower rates for passengers. [Speaker 7 ]: Go ahead. So the fuel prices include the road use taxes in those prices. And then the electric rate, the GMP equivalent of one point two dollars per gallon, that is charged at home at the I'll call it the residential rate for the time being. Yep. But it doesn't include the new increased registration charges or other charges that are coming down the pipeline for easy vehicles. [Jared Duvall ]: Right. I I think that that rate would reflect some not just the cost of electricity, but some other fees. But in terms of that reg that EV registration amount, that would not show up in here. Neither would the registration cost of a gas or diesel vehicle. [Kathleen James ]: Just because that's on how the [Jared Duvall ]: This is about [Kathleen James ]: the fuel. [Jared Duvall ]: Data works. [Kathleen James ]: Yeah. This is about the fuel. Okay. [Jared Duvall ]: Not the vehicle registration. [Speaker 7 ]: Okay. No. But when you refer to the EV rate, is that a proposal by the utilities for a controlled EV plug in? If you may remember the word OpPeak Electric, how often heaters, when they gave you that didn't give you they sold it to you at a lower rate, but they controlled the hours and you used it. Is that the case here? So it's not the equivalent of the rate one item. [Jared Duvall ]: Exact you're exactly right. So this this green line that says one seventy one would just be the regular residential rate. These these these dots below Okay. Show the lower rate [Speaker 7 ]: if Thank you. [Jared Duvall ]: You give them access to your charger so that charging can be avoided during those peak electricity events where electricity is the most expensive, which helps everybody save money avoiding those those peak events. [Graham Kleppner ]: And if I might add my personal experience as an electric car driver in Burlington and having just registered my car for another two years and paid the largest registration fee of my life. So two things. Your point is very well taken. That doesn't include the registration. You know, it's it's like two hundred dollars a year or something. And if you drive ten thousand miles, it's like two more two cents a gallon. But I will also add Burlington Electric's tough with that that that electric vehicle charging rate because you get that if you charge between ten pm and noon. But if you miss like five minutes in a month, the whole month goes to the higher rate. Like you've got to be clean the whole month to get that rate. And it's tough. Like, then you can program your charging station in your car to only charge those hours, and then someone else in your household screwed it up. [Jared Duvall ]: Someone to be on me. [Speaker 8 ]: What what sorry. [Kathleen James ]: No. Go ahead. [Speaker 8 ]: Getting back to Chris's question about the fuel, it the the the tax is still included in that price for the fuel that when you're doing that analysis? [Jared Duvall ]: I would have [Speaker 8 ]: makes it higher. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. I would have to go back to be one hundred percent sure. But my belief is that this reflects the price that people are paying on their electricity bill or at the pump. Yeah. Which would which would include taxes and fees on both of them. [Mark Morrow ]: K. Thank you. Okay. [Jared Duvall ]: So here, to where we we've talked about energy costs. Those energy costs fall differently on different you know, depending on where you live and how much money you make. One of the really problematic differences is that let's let's start with with this one on the left. Folks with lower incomes, you see here on the bottom x axis scooped by income, folks with lower incomes are on average buying and spending using less energy than folks with upper incomes. You often you don't have to figure houses. You may you're not traveling as much. However, the money that lower income and so you see this, like, increasing bars. The more income people make, the more energy they're using and buying. However, the lower amount of energy that lower income Vermonters are using takes up a far higher share of their budget. So folks who are below sixty percent of area median income, they're spending almost almost one thousand dollars less than folks who make over one hundred and twenty percent of area median income at energy. But it's taking up nineteen percent of their household budget versus three percent of the household budget of the upper income folks. So this is just really important to understand because it's a key difference. Right? Lower income folks are on average using less energy and spending less on energy, but it's a much higher energy cost burden in terms of the overall household budget for lower and middle income people than [Scott Campbell ]: it is for upper income folks. [Jared Duvall ]: And we see the same thing on the transportation side. Although the variation in terms of how much people drive and therefore how much when they're using a gas car, how much gasoline they use and what they pay for it is there's wide variation. And there's, you know, somebody who's a high gasoline user and, you know, makes twenty five to fifty thousand dollars, twenty percent of their budget will household budget will get eaten up by those gasoline costs as compared to a typical or an average gasoline user where that burden may be may be lower. [Kathleen James ]: So folks with a household income of twenty five thousand or less are spending between eleven and forty three percent. I'm reading this right. Right? They're spending up between eleven and forty three percent of their household income on gas depending on whether they're typical or high. [Jared Duvall ]: Some some are lower than that. That typical is an average. So some are lower. The high gasoline users are I believe it's the top fourteen percent of gasoline users in Vermont. [Kathleen James ]: Are spending forty three percent of their household income with gas. So folks who are commuting to work is what I'm assuming. Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. In the [Speaker 6 ]: more rural areas too. In the more rural areas. [Kathleen James ]: Further to get to their To get everywhere. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. Yeah. [Graham Kleppner ]: And take groceries and [Mark Morrow ]: add it. All good. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. So, like, for instance, the average Vermonter is I can't remember the exact number off the top of my head, but it's, I believe, somewhere between eleven and twelve thousand vehicle miles traveled per year. But you see some folks who, depending on their job or their commute or whatever, maybe forty thousand forty thousand miles a year. So that's where this big these big differences in, expense can come from in terms of especially on gasoline. [Kathleen James ]: Is that a hand or [Graham Kleppner ]: a No. [Speaker 7 ]: No. I was I alright. I'll ask the question. [Kathleen James ]: I know. I'm I'm watching. [Speaker 7 ]: No. No. No. So the amount of gasoline that's used by a person who uses his vehicle, it it's a person's income based to the based on the amount of gasoline that person buys over the the year Mhmm. Whether he is employed as, say, a carpenter or a trash hauler, maybe somebody who's gonna move all the time in this little private neighborhood business that he's he's using a higher amount of his household income. I just I just don't see where the business dollars and or I understand that somebody lives in dirty line not to pick on them that that that may come you know, the Northeast Kingdom where they travel a long way for everything from groceries to even filling up the gas itself Yeah. Today versus somebody who lives in a district like Pine Park, rural Rockland Park, downtown Rockland, who has a very short commute, stop by the grocery store on the way home and and reduces. You you use the term you still have the average of twelve thousand miles per Per driver. Per driver. And I don't have any idea what that twelve thousand relates to to the Northeast Kingdom driver Yeah. And the brother city driver or Burlington driver. I think [Jared Duvall ]: it's such it's such a great point because it's not just a function income, of course. Although we can break it down by that and look at it. It's also job. Mhmm. [Speaker 7 ]: But if when I talk to people about how how they get compensated for their vehicle usage, they get a a strike up like we do. But prior to that dollars that I buy the gas, come back and port to here or electric when I make charge it is in that out of my other pocket. I've got another wallet here, and I'm not taking the dollars out because it's coming but that that's a small amount of people who work in that type of business. But globally, it probably really is insignificant. But [Kathleen James ]: I didn't see the order of hands. Well For Chris Scott and Representative Kimley. Thank you. [Scott Campbell ]: So that brings up an interesting point. Are these costs kind of filtered out for residential usage versus business usage somehow? Or do you have any any sense of that? [Jared Duvall ]: The one on the left is gonna be by household, and it's reported in the American Community Survey. So we're asking households. So it wouldn't include business businesses. Uh-huh. The one on the right is from a data organization in Massachusetts called culture, but they have gasoline they have gasoline data center that has information from all states. And I would I would have to double check to be one hundred percent sure, but I believe that this is personal driving versus business driving. Yeah. [Scott Campbell ]: Sort of what certainly one of the complications would be that there are probably fairly well, I'm probably a higher percentage of people, sort of sole proprietors who Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: Drive their own vehicles for Some it's not. Stuff like that, [Scott Campbell ]: which would just be impossible throughout. [Jared Duvall ]: It seems totally you couldn't make that as a handyman independent contractor and go about the difference [Scott Campbell ]: between Right. Right. Okay. Just worry about that. So I think that's what you got. [Jared Duvall ]: Yes. [Speaker 8 ]: So my I have a question regarding when we carpool. So my car say my car gets twenty miles a gallon. I put so I get on twenty, then I put three other passengers in, so that's eighty miles of the gallon. Because I'm not those three people are not driving, so I take that credit, say, you know, like, say eighty miles. My twenty I don't count my twenty, but I count the They're sixty. Eighty. So is that considered as a factor when you were saying individual drivers, but maybe they're hauling kids to school. There might be four car four people in that car or [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. I think that's not Is [Speaker 8 ]: there an account adjustment for that? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. This this is just that vehicle and its its costs and versus the income of that driver. [Speaker 8 ]: So it's a one on one? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. Okay. [Chris Morrow ]: Yeah. I mean, the American Community Survey is literally a survey that goes to households. So I don't know what this question is if it asks, you know, what is your literal heating and and but it [Jared Duvall ]: Yes. On that side, on the other one, it's it's tracking individual vehicles and their mileage. So these are two different data sources. The one on the right about transportation and gasoline is culture. The one on the left is the American Community Survey as it relates to heating and electric costs. We didn't have the best data source we could get on transportation side with the sculpture app. [Kathleen James ]: Okay. And [Scott Campbell ]: just one other comment that I I don't know what the percentage is, but the percentage of single occupancy vehicle commuting is really high, you know, seventy, eighty, [Jared Duvall ]: or something like this. [Scott Campbell ]: Maybe even more. So and there have been studies about that in some ways. You know? [Jared Duvall ]: That's another issue for us. Right? [Kathleen James ]: Right. Now one carpooling. Okay. Next slide. [Jared Duvall ]: So we've got over energy use. [Kathleen James ]: Yes. Where [Jared Duvall ]: it comes from, we've talked about energy expenditures and costs through different looking at different ways, and then I was also asked to cover emissions. So this graph on the left in the kind of bolder colors shows Vermont's historical emissions as inventoried and reported by the agency of natural resources in their annual greenhouse gas inventory for the state. This reflects the the very latest greenhouse gas emissions inventory that went through twenty twenty one, and we had eight point two eight million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions. And the colors here show the emissions from the different sectors. So most emissions from transportation, then thermal, and then you can see the [Graham Kleppner ]: other sectors and other common colors. [Jared Duvall ]: On the right, those blue dots show the the targets that were set, in the Global Warming Solutions Act for emissions reduction over time to be in line with, national commitments and international agreements in terms of what are the science based targets of, reducing emissions to avoid the worst impacts of the destabilized climate. And so that reflects Vermont doing our part to reduce emissions in line with science based targets and and national commitments. So that would you know, that is shown by those blue dots. And if we were to reduce emissions proportionally across the sectors relative to what they emit now, you know, that's what the size of them would be over time. It's likely not going to happen that way. Different sectors have different opportunities to reduce emissions more or less cost effectively. But just as like a visual illustration, where we've come from on emissions and where the state has committed to go. [Kathleen James ]: Yeah. Represent And [Graham Kleppner ]: I I think we should point out that although, it's not gonna happen that way, the world is messy, the Global Warming Solutions Act does require the reductions to be proportionate to the current contributions by sector. [Jared Duvall ]: So the language, it doesn't actually require it. It's it asks for a plan to be put together that would account for achieving proportional. But there's not a firm requirement around it. Thank you. The only requirement is meeting the statewide emissions reduction. And I'm sorry. I don't have that language in front of me, but I can pull it up and share it if that's something. I believe you. [Kathleen James ]: Yeah. Perhaps it'll be Jared, would you [Chris Morrow ]: mind going back one slide? And I'm gonna go over some well drawn ground between you and I in terms of emissions reductions versus, you know, kind of economic impact and what we're seeing happening with the economy. So this is projecting well, it's projecting our requirements and where the emissions reduction would have to happen. Something that I'm trying to get more more data depicted on and understand who is thinking about this and accounting for this is really the transition in the economy that is happening naturally. Sun's us doing anything Yep. Because the energy transition is happening. No one has forced representative Kleppner to buy an EV. He's doing it as are, you know, a number of other folks, and that's changing [Scott Campbell ]: Mhmm. The [Speaker 7 ]: economy. Yep. [Chris Morrow ]: Are you in any way tracking that economic transition and and or if you're not, do you know where we could [Kathleen James ]: best [Chris Morrow ]: see Yeah. [Kathleen James ]: That happening? Answer, then I have a question. Yes. [Jared Duvall ]: So one of the things and so I'm just gonna take up my yeah. And half for a minute and put on my climate council hat for a minute. One of the things that has been supporting the climate council in its in its work is modeling that the agency of natural resources has commissioned around a pathways analysis, including a baseline or a business as usual model around how much emissions reduction are we gonna get just as a estimated result of things that are already underway, policies, programs, market transformation that's already happening. Because we know that on that trajectory, it's likely that we're gonna get emissions reduction that happens as a matter of of course. Right. And so then the question becomes, what is the difference between where that would lead versus what additional emissions reduction would need to be required required through newer additional policy or programs. And so that's being updated right now. Is this business as usual model and the pathways model? Right now, all the modeling that's been done Yeah. Suggest that we will see some emissions reduction on a business as usual trajectory, but not nearly the amount of reduction that would be necessary to meet the obligations without additional policy and regulatory actions. [Chris Morrow ]: So I would just like to come back to so then the difference is, you know, what is necessary for emissions reduction. That is if that is your focus is on emissions reductions. Some people like myself are worried about Vermaudra being left behind and seeing an increase in burden because they are and fossil fuel prices, a lack of access, a lack of choice as that's transitioning. And so those two things are not exactly the same, the economic impact to the emissions. They're connected. But, you know, I just wanna make so you're saying pathways report, and I I have to think about that. But I think it's really important, madam chair, for us to also understand what is happening to our economy, both naturally and as a part of regulation. You know? So and I myself can't get better about talking about that. So I don't know that I should be more articulate in this moment. [Kathleen James ]: Too bad because well, because this is how I you know, because you and I have talked about this. This is also the lens that I view our climate work through. Yeah. So emissions reductions to me are the metric, but the real story is how we're helping Vermonters heat their homes and and get around. And what I you've mentioned this a couple times now, and I I realized I can't picture in my mind when you say who's tracking the economy, who's tracking the economic transition, who's doing that work, where do we get that data. I don't know what that looks like. I don't know what kind of stats you're talking about. I don't know what kind of report you're talking about. I can't picture. I Either of this. [Jared Duvall ]: I think [Kathleen James ]: it's really important. Yeah. And I don't know what you're talking about. Simultaneous. I have a [Chris Morrow ]: specific example. And it's work that representative Campbell and you who are on the committee and I might have done on telecommunications, which is, you know, that became an urgent issue because we could see that the economy is changing. So we had an unregulated broadband and cell, you know, expanding where it was expanding where it was competitive and where they could make market. And then we had a regulated, which was copper landline that had competition from those unregulated, and but they were required to hold the lines up in places where I live in the and you live in the southern kingdom, which is also very rural. [Kathleen James ]: I'm not gonna get away from my N and K friends. [Chris Morrow ]: But we could see that the there was an economic change that was happening there, and the most vulnerable folks, like rural folks and poor folks, were not able to participate in that competition or and and we're seeing something deteriorate and become more and more expensive and less and less reliable. So that is like, how could we have seen that coming is what I am worried about now [Speaker 7 ]: with this. [Graham Kleppner ]: And I share that concern, and I've been thinking for some time, you know, specifically on the the the Vermonters left behind, as you said. [Speaker 7 ]: And in [Graham Kleppner ]: terms of heat pumps, you know, and I've asked a few times, how many homes heating with oil does a truck have to be delivering to for that truck to be economically viable. And thinking about as one by one some of those houses convert, and instead of getting oil every fall, they only need it every five years or whatever, right? At some point, the person driving that truck, and these are often one person who owns one truck or one person who owns two trucks, and the person and their kid drives them and whatever. At some point, it becomes not worth their while, and they sell and, you know, some other distribution company buys their truck and some of their customers. But there's gonna be some of those customers maybe who the new company isn't willing to deliver to. And then we have an emergency. We have someone who says, I heat with oil and no one will deliver oil to my home. Help. And I think it's something that my former colleagues on the climate council would do well to have a plan for and that, you know, we also would do well to have a plan for. [Scott Campbell ]: I think that's a great point. And I can think of an exact analogy, which is in the dairy industry as as the dairy the the trucks that pick up pick up milk got larger, they stopped stopping it at the smaller farms. And the smaller farms, you know, became became unviable for them to save business. So that's if if terrible might happen that the the [Speaker 6 ]: oil dealer, oil delivery, sort [Scott Campbell ]: of retail service will will will migrate to larger trucks in in order to to get economies of scale as the business gets squeezed. This this very well could happen. And [Chris Morrow ]: I am aware with work I mean, the work that I do outside of here is on economic work with the workforce challenges and just talking to the industry that there is already we were seeing consolidation Yep. [Mark Morrow ]: In the heating fuel. [Speaker 7 ]: So Yeah. Yeah. [Kathleen James ]: So we've been Jared, I said rehab. [Speaker 7 ]: Pick [Kathleen James ]: sorry about that. No. I I did it. So But this is a mister Duvall, we would like to honor your time and your presentation. Sure. But this is a good topic. [Scott Campbell ]: Well, it's a fruitful area for for for exploration for EAN in [Jared Duvall ]: the future to to to to [Scott Campbell ]: to look at the economic transformation or the right. Transformation of the economy [Jared Duvall ]: as also sort of a a moving sweat, I guess. Yes. And we I do have some some slides of data that I think will speak partially to this, not fully, but I really welcome feedback on requested data, requested analysis in terms of we're always trying to, like, change and improve how we're what we're illustrating now. So we really welcome that feedback. I will just say before I take my council hat off and put my EAN hat back on, then I think that this is the the biggest concern of this transition. It's right now, we have a high cost, high polluting energy system that's very inefficient, uses a lot of fossil fuel, Vermont is paying a lot of money for it. Two point two billion dollars a year in fossil fuel. You look at average heating and electricity costs for the average household in Vermont, three to four thousand a year. Average cost for a gas vehicle, one to two thousand a year. Average household has two vehicles. You're talking five to eight thousand dollars just in fuel costs for heating and transportation. And the situation we have right now is that the folks who are able to afford the more efficient over time, oftentimes lower cost energy options, whether it's electric vehicles, heat pump water heaters, investing in weatherization to bring those costs down over time are often folks who have the available upfront capital to do it or have access to loans to do it. And so the risk is that as we go forward, we have the energy economy becomes much more inequitable, and the folks who most need to see their energy cost burdens reduced, that nineteen percent of household income going to pay for for heating and electricity may be stuck on fuels that and energy inefficient energy equipment that is already and will increasingly become unaffordable versus those who are able to get on those more stable and low cost pressures. That's what from an from a perspective of caring about affordability for low and middle income providers, we need to find a way to address as a council and a and a the legislature and as a state. Well, I'll just leave it at that as a council and then go back to my Mhmm. PA Manhattan presentation if that's okay. But there's there's tension there. Right? Because then the question becomes, where do you get the investment to provide the grants and the incentives for the low and moderate income folks? And people don't want and then on the other side, there are folks who don't wanna see revenue rates to be able to do that, and you're leaving them exposed in stock. [Chris Morrow ]: Yeah. May I ask [Kathleen James ]: you one [Jared Duvall ]: more thing? [Kathleen James ]: One more thing. So I would [Chris Morrow ]: just say, it's a focus of places where we can do better. Like, connecting emissions reductions to that economic transformation is really, really important because we are all aware Yeah. That Vermont's emissions are are are very, very low in the grand scheme of things and that reducing them while, you know, noble, it it it's not that is not, you know, what Vermonters who are worried about their wallets are worried about. And so I don't think we're doing a great job connecting Yeah. Emissions reduction to economic transition that is happening Yeah. Even though they're connected Yeah. To, like, [Kathleen James ]: the work that we're doing. So [Chris Morrow ]: just as feedback Yeah. For someone who does a lot of modeling for us, which is incredibly valuable Yeah. And, you know, data production, which, you know, I share with my Vermonters all the time. I just wanna say thank you again to EAN for this data, which is really Thank you. Great. Well, I can't remember which hat you have on right now. [Jared Duvall ]: I think I'm back with you. Yeah. I got it. [Chris Morrow ]: It's just great to show that to my sorry. [Kathleen James ]: So let's do a time check. Jared, we've kept you past your time, but we don't have to be anywhere till three, but we need to give people a brief. So where are you in your presentation? If we've walked you down, like [Speaker 7 ]: We have a chair. [Kathleen James ]: Okay. Alright. I have, [Jared Duvall ]: like, ten slides left. Right. [Kathleen James ]: You don't have you don't have to rush. I just wanted to get a sense of, like, let's try [Jared Duvall ]: to what [Kathleen James ]: do you think? Fifteen minutes and everybody gets half an hour before floor? Is that okay, everybody? Okay. Okay. Okay. [Chris Morrow ]: So that means no questions, madam chair? [Kathleen James ]: No. No. That doesn't mean Just just [Jared Duvall ]: for your listeners. [Chris Morrow ]: Just for me. Okay. [Kathleen James ]: No. No. That doesn't mean that. I just if we go I'm not saying some hard thing about two thirty. I just wanna be respectful of Jared, and I'm not in a rush. Other folks may wanna take a break. [Jared Duvall ]: I I am available as long as you will or want to have. Okay. So but I will try to be efficient. This is another way of looking at our emissions then as compared to this graph. And it shows the sector by sector change over time since two thousand five. And you can see that we there's really differential progress by sector. We've actually achieved fairly large emissions reduction in the transportation sector. We're gonna work on a report in March that looks at why this is happening. Initially, I think that there's three big reasons that I wanna kinda test the hypothesis about. A big one, is an increasing amount of telecommuting. So and then especially pre and post pandemic. So we've seen a reduction in vehicle miles traveled, which means reduced fuel use and reduced emissions as more people work from home and continue working from home compared to pre pandemic. Another one is the increasing fuel efficiency of the fossil fleet, of the of the gas vehicle fleet. And then, of course, there's also an increasing amount of purchases of electric vehicles. So those three things, telecommuting, efficiency of the gas fleet, and electric vehicles, I think those are all factors that are contributing to this. To what degree? That's something we're gonna dig into. But there is some real progress and success that is happening in the transportation sector. Mhmm. The greatest reductions have happened over here in the electricity sector, and I think it's fair to say that it's very much linked to policy choices that have required those portfolios to become lower emitting over over time. You know, you can look this is what this is about the passage of the first renewable energy standard and then the emissions declining. These these black dashed lines that speaks to what representative Kloepner was talking about, those are our reference points. So it's not a requirement that each sector fall below those lines, but each if each sector was to reduce in line with the overall statewide requirements, that's where they would be below as of twenty twenty five. The electricity sector is already below it. It's it's the one sector that has already if if you were to think about it sector by sector, which isn't the right way to talk think about it, but they've already mapped the solutions sector term requirements. The challenges in these these other sectors, especially the thermal sector. This is where fossil fuel use in emissions has been most durable and persistent and in need of assistance to to help people, as you would say, representative, get off of those high cost and price volatile fossil fuels, but also the fuels that happen to be incredibly polluting and and leading to these high levels of climate pollution. [Kathleen James ]: Yep. Quick question. On the waste management Mhmm. Is that the energy it takes to collect waste, or does that have anything to do with, for example, Coventry and the fact that we don't put compost in the trash anymore? Like Yeah. What does that capture? [Jared Duvall ]: So the the fuel related to, like, waste tolerance, that would be captured in the transportation sector. Waste management, that's primarily referring to methane emissions from From land use. Yes. [Kathleen James ]: And does that dip? Does that have anything to do with that change? [Jared Duvall ]: That's that's a really good question. The compost law. Yeah. I I would wanna defer it to folks who have more expertise about that at the Department of Environmental Conservation and AR. But that's a great question. [Kathleen James ]: Interesting. Maybe. Yes. [Speaker 6 ]: So you touched on methane generation or methane gas release on the landfill. So one utility I'm aware of has methane generation to use at the country landfill. Is any of that taken into the energy production within the state? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. So if if it's captured and then used as energy, then that would show up. Like, I know that there are I don't know exactly about that example, but I know that that there's, like, farm digesters Yep. That produce methane that go into the gas pipeline, and that would be counted as as part of the the gas mix in that energy mix. Okay. [Speaker 6 ]: So it is taking into consideration those Yep. Thank you. [Kathleen James ]: Okay. [Jared Duvall ]: So this isn't different. This is just looking at a different way. This is this was a multiyear going back to two thousand five. Over time, what's happening with the sectors? This is the latest snapshot from twenty twenty one. Where did Vermont's emissions come from? Thirty nine percent transportation, thirty one percent thermal. And then and see the other sectors there. But seventy percent of this conversation, when it comes to climate pollution or when it comes to energy cost, the vast bulk of it is is in those two sectors. How we get around and how we heat our homes and buildings. [Chris Morrow ]: Okay. This [Jared Duvall ]: is the breakdown on the left of fuel use. So we say the thermal sector. That's a shorthand for what in the greenhouse gas inventory is called the residential, commercial, and industrial fuel use center. Those are interchangeable terms. One is easier to say. So I don't have that thermal sector, but it really means residential, commercial, and industrial fuel use. Residential sector is a little more than half of that fuel use. Commercial, a little more than a third. And industrial, this is as of twenty twenty one. And you can see the fuel mix changes, like more fossil gas used in the commercial sector than in residential. You know? So we broke it down that way with state and federal data. On the right, you can kind of see how missions break down light duty fleet versus heavy duty fleet. I think this is like this is one of those human psychology things that is it's a difficult balance. Right? Because I've often talked to people about transportation emissions and say, well, how do we lower them? The big thing that we need to do is get those those really big vehicles or those those airplanes that are using lots of fuel to reduce. And that's a that's a fair point, but there's a relatively small number of them. The much larger fuel used and the much larger amount of emissions comes from the five hundred thousand plus vehicles all using smaller amounts of fuel, but it adds up to a much bigger amount, putting eighty seven percent of our statewide transportation emissions from our light duty fleet, not our heavy duty fleet or our medium duty fleet. [Kathleen James ]: Is natural gas or fossil gas such a big percentage of commercial industrial because RBT gas territory is up in Chittenden Franklin. It's just a location I think [Jared Duvall ]: that's likely in some in Madison. That's right in terms of a lot of the commercial and manufacturing space. Okay. So just to continue on the emissions theme, putting Vermont in context, I take your point, representative Sebelius, that, you know, Vermont's overall emissions, total emissions are lower than most other places around the world, most other surrounding states because we have a lower population. If we're gonna look at it on an even basis in terms of weighted per population per person, then I think it is fair to say that we we have an outsized responsibility. Vermont's emissions per person are more than twice the global average, and they are the second highest per person in New England. Only New Hampshire produces more greenhouse gas pollution per person than Vermont. I wish that was not the case. My job isn't to say what's popular or convenient, but what is even what's true and inconvenient. And it's not just that Vermont has the second highest per person climate pollution produced in New England. It's also that of the New England states, unfortunately, we have made the least progress towards that first target that is in our Global Warming Solutions Act and that the United States committed to as part of the science based targets in the in the Paris Climate Agreement. So if to the extent that it folks think it's important that not that we reduce emissions elsewhere, not that we solve the climate crisis. We clearly cannot do that. No state. No country can do that. But should we take responsibility for reducing our own emissions as we work to lower energy costs and move away from a less efficient, very inequitable energy system? If we are to have that metric of what is us, what is Vermont doing its part, then these per capita questions and this progress towards the commitment we've made in law are relevant metrics. So I [Chris Morrow ]: have a I think I can demonstrate my I can demonstrate. Just really quick. [Kathleen James ]: Oh, you're just right here. It's right here in Wisconsin. Okay. Great. That was [Chris Morrow ]: So I think what I'm seeing here is all of these states are reducing their per capita emissions more than Vermont. They have But their [Jared Duvall ]: total emissions. Yeah. Their total emissions. [Chris Morrow ]: Yeah. More than Vermont. And so Vermont is falling behind emissions reduction. So I'm not sure how they're doing that. It could be EVs. It could be in their heating. It could be in their energy mix. But whatever it is that they're doing, they're changing Mhmm. The economy. Yes. They're changing how their economy works, and those are much larger states. And so what I see here and I'm sorry, Jared. I'm gonna say I'm gonna I'm gonna you know, it's like it's not like we have to do our part to reduce emissions to, you know, participate in climate change. I look at this and I say, oh, boy. Everyone else is getting in front [Graham Kleppner ]: of us [Chris Morrow ]: and changing their economy, and we're falling behind, which means the people who get hurt when we fall behind economically I mean, that's the work I do year round in rural Vermont. And that is what I worry about. So I see this and I say, we're falling behind in our economy even though it says emissions. Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: And I do have some market and economy focused graphs coming up. This just zooms in on the electricity sector emissions. We've already covered this, so I don't wanna go over too much more. I will say that for folks who wanna dive into this have an interactive dash it's not just printed on the page. EAN hosts on our website, interactive, emissions dashboard and an energy tracking dashboard in terms of how much comprehensive home weatherization is happening around the state. How many cold climate heat pumps are being installed? How many heat pump water heaters? How many electric vehicles registered? You can break that down by counting. You can break it down by town. You can look over time. Any way that you're curious about looking at that data for your district or for statewide policy making, those are free and open resources that we maintain with a lot of help, from getting data from efficiency Vermont and other utilities and see why partners. So just wanna these are screenshots from our emissions and energy dashboards that live on the Energy Action Network website that you're welcome to use and ask us questions about. So I think this gets to what part of what you're talking about. Nice to hear, Sebelia. [Chris Morrow ]: Thank you, ma'am. [Jared Duvall ]: Part of what we're doing in tracking this energy transition is what are we seeing in terms of adoption in Vermont of these different technologies, and how does that break down by geography? So on the left here, you see twenty sixteen, the total amount of heat pump water heaters in homes is just over five thousand. Out of twenty twenty three, it was nearly twenty thousand. So we're seeing this increase year after year after year of people adopting these more energy efficient, less polluting. Oftentimes, not always, but very often less expensive ways to heat water, you can see that there is differential rates of adoption by county on the right. This what this blue piece shows is how much of, you know, of the total target by twenty thirty that was in the pathways analysis for the Climate Action Plan Mhmm. In terms of how much adoption of on this measure, heat pump water heaters, we have to see by twenty thirty how far along are we. Fourteen percent as of twenty thirty towards the twenty thirty target. A lot more to do, both to reduce emissions and in many instances, not all, to reduce costs. And I do wanna pause on that because the the ability to achieve cost savings depends on a lot of things. It depends how you're and this is let's take this example of how you're currently heating your water. And, you know, if you're switching to a heap of water heater, what are the rates in your utility? Might be a lot easier and less expensive to do in GMP territory than it might be in another. So there is nuance here. It varies. This is not just one simple story, but overall, there is significant opportunity that we're not fully taking advantage of to reduce cost and emissions that and and this is part of it, the opportunity. This looks at comprehensive home weatherization. Our twenty thirty target in the pathways versus where we stand now. You know, we're nearly forty thousand homes comprehensively weatherized in Vermont, which is which is great. The challenge is that due to lots of reasons, funding, workforce, etcetera, that has tended to be a fairly stable about two thousand homes a year weatherized. And it's been really difficult to move that number up, and there are still long wait lists in many territories for folks who wanna get homes weatherized as vice chair Campbell knows very well from his previous work. Again, this is from our dashboard. You can look at, you know, amounts of home weatherization total statewide over time, by county, by town. You do it for cold climate heat pumps. I mean, look at the rate of adoption. Then we're seeing nearly sixty thousand across the state as of twenty twenty three. You know? And we're seeing a lot of it in Madison County, but less in the Northeast Kingdom. So just an informational resource that helps track this market transition in real well, in a year with a later year delay in terms of what we're seeing in terms of technology adoption. [Chris Morrow ]: This is so such a [Mark Morrow ]: rich presentation. Mhmm. [Speaker 7 ]: I'm sure. It'd be great to have more of [Chris Morrow ]: it at some point. Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: And then lastly, just on the same point, we're doing the same thing for electric vehicles. This is a little out of date. As of July last year, we were at over fifteen thousand from data from General Electric Vermont and Department of Motor Vehicles. But you can see, you know, this trajectory definitely increasing as representative Kleppner said earlier. I think with small percentage of the fleet still, and we've got over five hundred and fifty thousand vehicles in Vermont in comparison to what the climate action plan pathways analysis points to. And I just had some examples on the potential economics of this. We looked at average based on average miles traveled, average gasoline car comparable electric vehicle, lifetime potential savings on fuel and maintenance for an EV driven in Vermont, ninety five hundred dollars over the lifetime compared to a gas vehicle. In terms of being able to access that, of course, the incentives matter to bring that upfront cost down, which is a a big challenge right now because we don't know the future of the federal incentives. The state incentives have been spent out and have gone. And so there's a possibility that going forward, we'll just see the utility incentives. That will be a big question in terms of where those goes and what happens in terms of the ability for this to keep increasing. [Kathleen James ]: Yeah. I'm [Speaker 6 ]: sure. Thank you. So does that number take into account replacement of batteries over the lifetime of an EV? We we know that they don't have a, you know, an infinite lifespan. Right. And it is quite costly to change them. So does that number reflect that? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. That's the average lifetime cost of the maintenance of EV. Now if it goes beyond that, it's beyond I mean, you know, then the analysis would be different. But it's a similar thing on gasoline vehicles in terms of things that need to be changed at a different time frame. The maintenance costs and the repair costs are different, but it it it is doing an apples to apples comparison on that. [Kathleen James ]: Mark Marlin? [Mark Morrow ]: So that that brings up an interesting question. How we factor in the changing technology? So for instance, the batteries on these cars are changing very rapidly. All climate heat pumps are getting much better and more efficient as we move forward, etcetera, etcetera. The the hot the the hot water tanks heat pump hot water tanks getting better and better. You know? So, like, when you're projecting out in the future, is is efficiency how do you factor in that if at all? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. It's it's a great question because when we whenever we do modeling into the future at EAN, we're really hesitant to go beyond another five years. Like, go beyond twenty thirty because these markets and variables are changing so fast. And so, for instance, you know, there's been analysis that's been produced for the Climate Council or for other bodies, you know, that projects out to twenty fifty, I have a real a much higher level of uncertainty about what the cost of those pieces of equipment will be ten or twenty years from now than I do this year or next year or the year after and what the efficiency will be. I think it's a really important point. But right now, a lot of the analysis is assuming current costs and current efficiencies. But we know as markets mature in which human economies of scale, usually you see a per unit cost reduction and improvements in efficiency. And those variables should be taken into account for different scenarios as we do model. I My kind of mantra when it comes to modeling is take projections that are far off into [Scott Campbell ]: the future with [Jared Duvall ]: a large grain or many grains of salt and that it's much easier to have have confidence in the in the nearer term projections and always ask questions about the assumptions behind long range projections. [Graham Kleppner ]: Quick comment. I will say in the business I ran starting with the pandemic, I stopped doing forecasts out beyond three years Yeah. Just because it felt the technology and the economy and the climate were all changing so fast that beyond that, it was too speculative. To representative Southworth's question, the tech on my electric car told me when I was asking him about its long term prospects, he said, you know, these cars are great. Like, your end is not going to give out on you. He said, it's not going to be the engine or the battery. It's going to be what eats every Vermont car. It's going to be rust on the roads that rust out your body so you can't pass inspection. That's what's gonna kill your car. [Jared Duvall ]: I said, that's another problem. [Mark Morrow ]: That's not our problem. Yeah. [Kathleen James ]: No. That's not the salt. We can add it. [Jared Duvall ]: And I think this is my last slide. Just an example on the the water heater set. And this this we're kind of ending with a major theme that we've talked about throughout. Right? And this is the challenge of it's possible to get on lower cost curves to save money over time, but there's a hurdle of the upfront investment. So this is an example. Say your water heater dies, and your choice is whether to buy a new propane water heater or buy a heat pump water heater. Without incentives, oftentimes, the cost of the equipment of the propane water heater is gonna be lower. But over time, the higher cost of propane as a fuel as opposed to efficiently using electricity is gonna bring this to ninety five hundred dollars in lifetime cost for a propane water heater versus sixty five hundred dollars in lifetime cost for a heat pump water heater, which can be even lower if with with incentives. But there's just this this distinction, like and part of it is because less expensive equipment is often less expensive because it's more inefficient. I've had experiences where I get things in the mail from propane companies that say, we wanna give you a free propane water heater if you sign up from a with us. Why are they doing that? They want to lock you in on their very high cost fuel. It's like the cell phone economics. Right? You get a free cell phone, but you've got a really high monthly plan. And so I think part of what we need to do in Vermont is have a cost savings affordability conversation that is that is the whole picture. Right? It's not just what is the upfront cost, but what is the lifetime cost and what are the potential savings month to month and year to year? Because when we only focus on the upfront cost, then it locks in higher cost and greater inefficiency over time. And with that, I just have some websites. I do [Kathleen James ]: I think I can address one final question. [Speaker 8 ]: Thank you, madam chair. On that, if you could back up the one slide there, the sixty five hundred dollar cost includes the monthly electric bill. K. And how much do those averagely run average run on those? [Jared Duvall ]: I would have to go back and look. I don't recall if it's helping me have the [Speaker 8 ]: Okay. And does that include if the homeowner has to upgrade his electric service from a hundred amp to five to two hundred amp? [Jared Duvall ]: That's that's not represented here. That would have to go into the installed cost. So that's that's in that scenario, the installation cost would go up and that's that's not reflected here. This is this is just the equipment. [Mark Morrow ]: Yeah. [Speaker 6 ]: And it's are these referring to storage hot water heaters, on demand hot water heaters? And that have you looked at the on demand portion of propane on demand, the electric hot demand to see if there's a comparison there that works out differently? [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. We could this is just a this comparison is just a standard heat pump water heater with a protein water heater. Yeah. We we couldn't look at that. I think it is an important point. This is not represented in an electric on demand water heater where the cost would be higher. That would be either kind of more resistance based technology rather than that. But, yes, that's a good question. I will run back and we'll look at. [Kathleen James ]: What's mom? [Mark Morrow ]: So the you know, a lot of these questions come down to capital up you know, you're talking about upfront cost. So so I just went through this process to to migrate from a fuel oil pot water heater to a heat pump pot water heater and and through the moderate income program. And it was extremely efficient and easy, except I had to have the money upfront. Yeah. Yeah. So, like, this is a an energy committee, but, really, we need some economists to come in and you know, there's gotta be some models around the country of how we deal with the money. Yeah. Because government flows from that. Mhmm. [Scott Campbell ]: Yeah. And that was the purpose of [Jared Duvall ]: the Affordable Care Act. Yeah. Representative suffered. [Kathleen James ]: Oh, no. Sorry. Yeah. Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: Thank you. [Kathleen James ]: By all means. Thank you. [Speaker 8 ]: Mhmm. So what about the how are we gonna deal how the utility is gonna deal with this increased load Mhmm. [Mark Morrow ]: Which is gonna be an issue. Yeah. [Jared Duvall ]: I she's sorry. [Mark Morrow ]: I was [Kathleen James ]: gonna say quick answer, and then I do wanna wrap up and to reassure you that we will be having utilities in and Belco, nice and new living. Okay. [Speaker 8 ]: Good. [Kathleen James ]: So but [Jared Duvall ]: Excellent question. [Kathleen James ]: That is a great question. [Jared Duvall ]: Yeah. But go ahead. No. I I know we're over time. So I do have some slides on it. I I think that you're exactly right that it's it would be great to hear. I would Belco. Respectfully encourage, testimony from Belco. They've done a lot of modeling on the long range transmission plan. And, yeah, it's very good. [Kathleen James ]: Great. Okay. Thank you so much for coming. [Jared Duvall ]: Good to hear. [Kathleen James ]: It sounds like we need to have you come back. [Jared Duvall ]: Please don't have any way that I can be a resource either in testimony or providing information or resources or if you have suggestions on additional data tracking research or analysis we can do that would be helpful to see. Please don't ever hesitate.

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SmartTranscript of House Energy and Digital Infrastructure- 2025-01-16- 1:00pm

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